The Emerging New (Old) World Order

Not good times for Russia. All indications are that the Russian economy is in a tailspin; the value of the Ruble is plummeting, and Western economic sanctions levied after the Crimea takeover last year are taking a serious toll. In the midst of such gloom, Vladimir Putin comes out with a year end three-hour long marathon press conference that has left many analysts baffled. Evoking the proud image of the 'Russian bear', he gave reassurances that the country will return to its former glory, while resisting efforts from Western imperialists to de-fang the country of its teeth and claws (nuclear weapons) and ravage its natural resources.

The image of the bear is clearly intended to stroke nationalistic sentiments, which have seen a resurgence during Putin's decade-plus stay in power. Fierce, strong and independent, the Russian bear is not a hollow symbol for millions of citizens but is representative of a form of collective power through the ages. In the modern world, where borders seemed to have become meaningless in the face of international capital and globalised media and fashion, political nationalism is often presented as a receding force. But evidently, the idea of the 'nation' has staying power beyond demagogic appeals. Depending on the country and region, nationalism has surreptitiously crept into the group psyche of entire populations. It seems helpful to explore a bit into this phenomenon and whether we are potentially headed into a post-nationalist world.

Nationalism: A bit of a Primer

Most of us have no inkling of any sort of political order outside our current arena of nation-states, almost having accepted that some rudimentary form of this contemporary setup has existed throughout human existence. It hasn't, and the change brought about by the birth of nationalism is one of the most profound in recorded history.

According to the eminent historian, Liah Greenfeld, the first modern concept of a 'nation' emerged in England in the 15th century, initiated by the Tudors. The central thrust behind nationalism is that political sovereignty, the legitimacy behind the right to govern and the ownership of a territory, resides in the 'nation', the collective population, not a Divine Source. A nation, unlike other terms used to describe a people, such as ethnicity or race, is inherently a political term. What defines what exactly constitutes a nation is something that has been debated for ages, and is usually classified along linguistic, cultural and historical lines.

In 1648, the Treaty of Westphalia in Europe established definite political dominions recognizing sovereignty within the separate states under ostensibly secular monarchs, not in any religious authority. This was a revolution that dissolved the previous domain of Christendom, when the Church wielded effective control, recognizing only Divine Sovereignty with monarchs acting as mere vassals. As the centuries passed, monarchs and parliaments in the West and appeared not as viceroys for the Lord but representative of the collective will of the 'nation'. This loss of political authority by the religious establishment marked the true origin of secularism and the Modern West. With the passage of time, nationalistic symbols and anthems assumed the aura of religious fervor, only the devotees worshiped now at the altar of a secular geographic god.

A World in Flux

Following independence from colonial rule, the quest for statehood has seen the development of nearly 200 countries across the globe, with more perhaps on the horizon. Nationalism experienced a major boom for much of the 20th century and remained almost to an uncontested degree the definite political order of the human race. Contrary to analysts now who like to view events across entire continents as monolithic happenings, various trends are simultaneously taking place that pose interesting questions for whether this is likely to continue across the 21st century.

The first trend is scaling up. The idea is that the nation-state model is becoming obsolete, and politics should be handled on a larger geographic scale. The European Union has provided the blueprint for such larger regional frameworks. Smaller national affairs have become less meaningful with the temptation of a common economic market, porous borders and shared governance over an entire region. Regionalism is a push to de-emphasize the traditional nation-state model for a larger international groupings. ASEAN, which will form its Common Market this year, and the new Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) appear to be attempts to follow the EU's footsteps.

Another trends is breakdown. Nation-states, particularly post-colonial ones that were fashioned in haste and contrivance, suddenly lose their viability with sufficient internal and external pressure. A 'loss of faith' occurs. In many cases, civil war leads to the state breaking away along to original tribal, religious and ethnic lines, something demonstrated with the sad situation in Syria and Iraq and the rise of ISIS. But Western nations are not exempt. Viewed through a different lens, the recent referendum in Scotland and the possible one in Catalonia can be seen as efforts for a local territory to divest itself a larger federation, in those cases the United Kingdom and Spain. Localism takes precedence over the claims of statehood, even if they extend a few centuries.

Lastly, what we see in Russia is a template being carried in several Asian and Eurasian democracies at the moment: what US political pundit Pat Buchanan calls 'Putinism'. In a departure from traditional liberal democracy, Putinism leans towards autocratic leaders, managed media and a blend of religion and social conservatism all packaged neatly together by economic development. It is something being witnessed in India with Narendra Modi and Turkey with Tayyip Erdogan. Secular modes of nationalism are transformed into a more ethnic, religious variety.

Unlike the claims of those who believe that we are at the precipice of a One-World Government, shifts in the geopolitical tectonic plates suggest that if that is indeed the future, it certainly won't be a straight line. What is clear is that the chest-beating confidence that the West had in the success of its liberal democratic structure is no longer there, and the rest of the World is no longer waiting for cues.